Lessons From Iraq

I just finished watching the first presidential debate, and one of the first questions was what are some of the lessons that can be learned from the war in Iraq. This should have been a softball question for Obama because in order to learn we have to admit our mistakes. McCain response was clear that he was not going to admit any mistakes. In fact, he just reveled in the wisdom of the surge. Worse yet, Obama did not seize the opportunity, basically said we should leave Iraq and shift to Afghanistan.

DAMNIT! Neither candidate can learn from the war in Iraq? That’s a scary thought. The reality is that there are numerous lessons to be learned, and it pains me to think of the state of our country that I, a humble citizen, needs to write these lessons for posterity.

Unilateral. Bush likes to refer to the Iraqi War as the Global War on Terror. Nothing could be further from the truth. We have no allies in the war of Iraq. The Coalition of the Willing was fragile at best, and whatever allies we had quickly bailed once they realized what a mess we had entered. Worse yet, in Afghanistan we had the world united to fight Osama Bin Laden. If we could have framed the war as the World against Osama Bin Laden, it would have ended a long time ago. Unilateral is also horrible from a cost standpoint. Now that we are going through a financial crisis unequaled since the Great Depression, wouldn’t it have been nice if we had had other nations to share the costs?

So the lesson to be learned is that we need allies, and part of having allies is listening to them.

Unprovoked. Not only did we enter this war alone, it was unprovoked. A truly lethal combination. There are two large negative aspects. Our national standing suffers since both our allies and our enemies find it hard to deal with a country that behaves unilaterally without provocation. More importantly, it shows off an ugly side of America, arrogance. It is clear through the partisan battles about this war, that many Americans believe that we are the world’s police cop, and hence unprovoked unilateral actions are our God given right.

The lesson here is clear. Quick and swift unilateral action should be in retaliation to a provocation.

Intelligence. George Tenet said finding WMD in Iraq was a Slam Dunk. Can you imagine where we would be if Tenet had said instead, “President Bush, there is a decent chance that are no WMD in Iraq and Saddam is bluffing.” We can’t go back in time, but I can postulate forcefully that we would have never entered the war in Iraq. Of course, the intelligence failures did not end with WMD. We believed that we would be greeted as liberators rather than invaders, and the list goes on. Then Bush gives the guy a medal! This is the guy that oversaw perhaps the largest intelligence failure in the history of the country.

When you are handing out medals, you are not learning from your mistakes. You are reveling in them. The lesson here is that our intelligence sucks and we should take our intelligence with a grain of salt until significant improvements and changes are made.

Changing the Mission. First, we say we are protecting ourselves from WMD. We capture the country and scour for the elusive bombs. Sure, we look like boobs, but the mission is accomplished, there is no threat of WMD. Not even close. What do we do? We change the mission. Now we are out to topple a brutal dictator. I am proud to say that our military nailed it. The guy was hiding in a hole for God’s sake, and we found him. Boo ya! Let’s get out here, and great job.

Ummmm. No. There’s another mission. What? Yes, we now want Iraq to become a beacon for democracy. Say what? Yes, a shining beacon of democracy with whipped cream on top. This is absurdity at its worse, and there is a huge lesson here. Congress did not authorize the toppling of Saddam, nor did they authorize the beacon of democracy. Once we realized there were no WMD, the president should be required to return to Congress for further authorization. Maybe Congress would have been bitten on toppling Saddam, but the beacon thing would never have passed muster. Another valuable lesson is that our military is excellent at achieving certain tasks. We secured a hostile nation and we found and killed their dictator. However, there are limits to what can be achieved militarily and creating democratic beacons is not one of them.

Know Your Enemy. Osama Bin Laden has already stated that he views his jihad against the United States as a financial war. Why is no one paying to this attention to this? Do we not care? This is not about suicide bombers and road side explosive devices, this is about money. Recent estimates put Bin Laden’s worth at $300M, which is a paltry sum compared to the mighty United States. Think about it. Let’s say that Bin Laden has spent about $100M in the war in Iraq, and we have gone through $500B. That means for every one dollar that Bin Laden spends in Iraq, we plow through $5000. That’s a pretty good return on investment for Bin Laden.

What about the surge? Does Obama want us to blow more or less money in Iraq? Bin Laden wants this war to drag on as long as possible because for every dollar he spends, we spend $5000. I believe that the last thing Bin Laden wants is for America to leave Iraq. If we do, it is because we can no longer afford it, and he will declare victory.

But wait, aren’t we going through an economic crisis? Maybe, just maybe there is a lesson to be learned? Many can argue that the Cold War was won because the US military build up pushed Russia into an intolerable economic situation. The lesson learned is obvious. War’s cost money and no one, including the United States, has an infinite supply.

Admitting Mistakes. I believe very firmly that admitting your mistakes quickly is the secret to success. Learn from them, and create a new plan. No one is always right. To be consistently right is a matter of admitting and eliminating mistakes not avoiding admitting them. Unfortunately, the Bush administration and apparently John McCain, believe that mistakes are NEVER to be admitted. First, they believe that admitting mistakes emboldens the enemy. Of course, that is horse radish. Having no allies emboldens the enemy. Changing course quickly and aptly would do the opposite.

Additionally, the admission of mistakes emboldens the other party. This is true, but the solution is not to avoid admitting mistakes. Jim Lehrer’s question was so great because one of the cornerstone’s Bush’s administration is never to admit your mistakes and hence never learn from them. So the last and final lesson is that we as a nation must learn from our mistakes and the first step is admitting them.