Lessons From Iraq

I just finished watching the first presidential debate, and one of the first questions was what are some of the lessons that can be learned from the war in Iraq. This should have been a softball question for Obama because in order to learn we have to admit our mistakes. McCain response was clear that he was not going to admit any mistakes. In fact, he just reveled in the wisdom of the surge. Worse yet, Obama did not seize the opportunity, basically said we should leave Iraq and shift to Afghanistan.

DAMNIT! Neither candidate can learn from the war in Iraq? That’s a scary thought. The reality is that there are numerous lessons to be learned, and it pains me to think of the state of our country that I, a humble citizen, needs to write these lessons for posterity.

Unilateral. Bush likes to refer to the Iraqi War as the Global War on Terror. Nothing could be further from the truth. We have no allies in the war of Iraq. The Coalition of the Willing was fragile at best, and whatever allies we had quickly bailed once they realized what a mess we had entered. Worse yet, in Afghanistan we had the world united to fight Osama Bin Laden. If we could have framed the war as the World against Osama Bin Laden, it would have ended a long time ago. Unilateral is also horrible from a cost standpoint. Now that we are going through a financial crisis unequaled since the Great Depression, wouldn’t it have been nice if we had had other nations to share the costs?

So the lesson to be learned is that we need allies, and part of having allies is listening to them.

Unprovoked. Not only did we enter this war alone, it was unprovoked. A truly lethal combination. There are two large negative aspects. Our national standing suffers since both our allies and our enemies find it hard to deal with a country that behaves unilaterally without provocation. More importantly, it shows off an ugly side of America, arrogance. It is clear through the partisan battles about this war, that many Americans believe that we are the world’s police cop, and hence unprovoked unilateral actions are our God given right.

The lesson here is clear. Quick and swift unilateral action should be in retaliation to a provocation.

Intelligence. George Tenet said finding WMD in Iraq was a Slam Dunk. Can you imagine where we would be if Tenet had said instead, “President Bush, there is a decent chance that are no WMD in Iraq and Saddam is bluffing.” We can’t go back in time, but I can postulate forcefully that we would have never entered the war in Iraq. Of course, the intelligence failures did not end with WMD. We believed that we would be greeted as liberators rather than invaders, and the list goes on. Then Bush gives the guy a medal! This is the guy that oversaw perhaps the largest intelligence failure in the history of the country.

When you are handing out medals, you are not learning from your mistakes. You are reveling in them. The lesson here is that our intelligence sucks and we should take our intelligence with a grain of salt until significant improvements and changes are made.

Changing the Mission. First, we say we are protecting ourselves from WMD. We capture the country and scour for the elusive bombs. Sure, we look like boobs, but the mission is accomplished, there is no threat of WMD. Not even close. What do we do? We change the mission. Now we are out to topple a brutal dictator. I am proud to say that our military nailed it. The guy was hiding in a hole for God’s sake, and we found him. Boo ya! Let’s get out here, and great job.

Ummmm. No. There’s another mission. What? Yes, we now want Iraq to become a beacon for democracy. Say what? Yes, a shining beacon of democracy with whipped cream on top. This is absurdity at its worse, and there is a huge lesson here. Congress did not authorize the toppling of Saddam, nor did they authorize the beacon of democracy. Once we realized there were no WMD, the president should be required to return to Congress for further authorization. Maybe Congress would have been bitten on toppling Saddam, but the beacon thing would never have passed muster. Another valuable lesson is that our military is excellent at achieving certain tasks. We secured a hostile nation and we found and killed their dictator. However, there are limits to what can be achieved militarily and creating democratic beacons is not one of them.

Know Your Enemy. Osama Bin Laden has already stated that he views his jihad against the United States as a financial war. Why is no one paying to this attention to this? Do we not care? This is not about suicide bombers and road side explosive devices, this is about money. Recent estimates put Bin Laden’s worth at $300M, which is a paltry sum compared to the mighty United States. Think about it. Let’s say that Bin Laden has spent about $100M in the war in Iraq, and we have gone through $500B. That means for every one dollar that Bin Laden spends in Iraq, we plow through $5000. That’s a pretty good return on investment for Bin Laden.

What about the surge? Does Obama want us to blow more or less money in Iraq? Bin Laden wants this war to drag on as long as possible because for every dollar he spends, we spend $5000. I believe that the last thing Bin Laden wants is for America to leave Iraq. If we do, it is because we can no longer afford it, and he will declare victory.

But wait, aren’t we going through an economic crisis? Maybe, just maybe there is a lesson to be learned? Many can argue that the Cold War was won because the US military build up pushed Russia into an intolerable economic situation. The lesson learned is obvious. War’s cost money and no one, including the United States, has an infinite supply.

Admitting Mistakes. I believe very firmly that admitting your mistakes quickly is the secret to success. Learn from them, and create a new plan. No one is always right. To be consistently right is a matter of admitting and eliminating mistakes not avoiding admitting them. Unfortunately, the Bush administration and apparently John McCain, believe that mistakes are NEVER to be admitted. First, they believe that admitting mistakes emboldens the enemy. Of course, that is horse radish. Having no allies emboldens the enemy. Changing course quickly and aptly would do the opposite.

Additionally, the admission of mistakes emboldens the other party. This is true, but the solution is not to avoid admitting mistakes. Jim Lehrer’s question was so great because one of the cornerstone’s Bush’s administration is never to admit your mistakes and hence never learn from them. So the last and final lesson is that we as a nation must learn from our mistakes and the first step is admitting them.

Dear Senator Obama,

Please find my campaign donation for $2300. I wish there was a way that I could legally donate more money, because I would do it in a heart beat.

First, a little bit about myself. I am 49 years old, married with one infant, and another one the way. I have been successful my entire adult life in both academics (Cornell and University of Texas) and business. I rose to the top ranks of Gateway Computer, and currently, I reside in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil where I operate a small, successful and rapidly growing American software company, PC Pitstop.

I have always considered myself an independent. That said, I recently received a 14 x 11 certificate stating that I am amongst the top 50 Republican donors in the state of South Carolina. I am still trying to determine whether I should burn it or frame it.

The reason that I am writing is that I am scared for our country. I am not an alarmist, and I can honestly say that I have never felt this way up to now. During our lifetimes, America has always been the most powerful nation in the world. Economically, militarily and diplomatically. In front of our very own eyes, it is slowly but surely fading away. Personally, I have already sold millions dollars worth of stock in the last 3 months, and I proud to say I am 100% cash. Two months ago, I also analyzed all of my financial institutions, and moved all my cash to only the ones that have strong balance sheets and minimal exposure to mortgages. The last portion of my plan is to move begin moving cash to other currencies in other countries as many of my other wealthy friends have already done.

The underlying problem with the United States are the fundamentals of the economy. Every single fundamental index is going in the wrong direction. It is amazing to see the number of financial failures during an election year.

I am writing this because I want you to change course. You need to be that force that will right the American economy. It will take leadership skills that no other American president has ever possessed. At the end of the day, it is the only thing that really matters. We cannot afford to have the best military with a crumbling economy. We cannot find the solution to our oil addiction when so many people are out of work. We cannot take care of our elderly without a strong economy. Same with health care, education, etc.

Here are my humble thoughts on the big issues that need to be addressed by the next president if there is any chance of restoring American greatness throughout the world.

Deficit. Balance the budget. This must be your first and foremost priority. The Republicans have been nailing you on raising taxes. That’s fine. Then start cutting expenses. Here’s a stat. American worker productivity has risen substantially in the last 8 years. How about the US government? The efficiency is horrible. Even if you throw out the costly war in Iraq, this government is the largest government in the history of the nation. It is fat, slow, and an unuseful. Someone needs to take an ax to it and watch expenses like any wise business owner would. Make a promise to the American people that come hell or high water, you will balance the budget. Don’t end there! The goal is not to break even, we need a surplus.

Here’s a hint. Use technology. By any standard, the US government is far behind business and many other governments in the use of the web and technology to reduce cost.

Taxes. The Republicans are hammering that you will raise taxes, trying to raise fear in low income earners. Don’t let them. When asked by Bill O’Reilly, “Why should I pay more taxes just because I make more money?”, your response was poor. Basically, because O’Reilly can afford to. Not that John McCain could have done better, but America requires the next president to be much more savvy about basic economic theory. Here are two reasons based on economics on the effective use of a progressive tax during a recession.

Velocity of Money. During times of recession (like now), the wealthy will reduce expenditures and increase savings. As savings increase, interest rates will go down, and then more people will be able to afford loans. They get these loans and spend the money. With a progressive tax, the end result is the same, but the time for the money to land in the hands of the people that need it is a lot less. Hence, the recession will last less time, and the recovery quicker. Reagan’s trickle down economics work OK in times of expansion, but the opposite is true, during times of retraction.

The gap between the rich and the poor. There is a tired old saying “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” Unfortunately, there is economic evidence that suggests that such a spiral exists. I live in Brazil and it has the largest gap between rich and poor in the world, and it stifles the economy. More importantly, this is not the American dream. Inherent in the dream, is that with the right ambition, hard work, and little luck, you can be anything you desire. You are NEVER trapped by your circumstances.

I think I over-made my points, but the reason is that I want you to become an expert on economic theory. You need to become someone that can articulate a credible economic plan with true measurable results. It is laughable to hear John McCain stating that he will remove greed from Wall Street. Perhaps, the tooth fairy will leave 10 trillion dollars under my pillow tomorrow night, John.

The dollar. All of our lives, we have had a strong dollar. Even in the first few years of Bush administration, and after 9/11, the dollar remained strong. And now it has fallen off a cliff. All of this is so intertwined. Our government is borrowing money at a record pace. Furthermore, there is a chicken and egg spiral between the rise in oil prices and the dollar falling. We have to break this spiral quickly. The reality is that the rise in gasoline prices are more a function of the fall in the dollar than supply and demand economics. I am truly worried about a spiral that runs out of control. Oil prices go up, which is inflationary. This weakens the economy which forces the dollar down…. and oil prices go up again. We must gain control of this situation. Yes oil prices will go up based on supply and demand, but not due to the weakness of our currency.

Pet Projects. I truly have enjoyed your speeches but there is a lot of soaring rhetoric. It is now time for that to end. The reason is that we cannot come close to balancing the budget and executing all of the dreams in your speech. Let me use a more concrete example. Universal health care. I personally agree with you and Hillary on health care. Our health care is abysmal when compared to other first world countries. But now is not the time to fix this problem, because we cannot afford to implement such an ambitious program during a recession.

I am really worried that the American federal government is addicted to deficit spending. It is clear that the Republicans are addicted, and to be honest, it is not clear whether under an Obama administration that things would really change. Just what projects the deficit would finance. Give us a sign that you are a man that knows how to live within his means. You can match your dreams and your accomplishments against a budget. Bring a new discipline to Washington.

Moreover, it is a sign that fixing this problem requires tough choices, and you are the man to make those tough choices.

Foreign Policy. I really hope that this recession changes our foreign policy. If we are going to balance the budget, we can no longer afford to be the world’s police cop. Nation building? It’s looking pricey now that we got a budget to balance. Furthermore, we will avoid like the plague unilateral actions (formerly called the Bush Doctrine), not because we are weak, but because we realize that wars cost money. We should let the world know that our focus is at home, because we know that a strong American economy is our strongest global contribution. I believe that a strong American economy will find the cures to cancer and Alzheimers. I believe that Americans will find the next alternative energy. It could be that balancing budget might force us to end the conflict in Iraq.

The debates. The Republicans did a respectable job giving Sara Palin a crash course in foreign policy. Senator Obama, you need a crash course on economics. You can already run circles around John McCain (by his own admission) on economic policy. But we need to set the bar much much higher. For me, it is not winning the election, it is winning the recession. You need to become the most astute president economically in the history of the nation.

Make the economy your laser focus in the debates. Make it the underpinning of each and every decision you make. If you think about it, what program or earmark or tax policy or foreign alliance is not in some way impacted by our economy and the federal budget? None.

We always hear politicians talk about our “hard earned tax dollars”. Show us that you are different. That you know how to spend our money wisely. Like no other president or administration in the history of the country. Make the tough choices, and the history books will be yours to write.

I am going to sign off now. One of our employees at PC Pitstop, Corey Munson, was your precinct captain in Sioux City, IA. He told me that perhaps he could find a way so that you would read this.

I write this in all sincerity.

Rob Cheng

PS – Here’s your new campaign slogan. Dollars and Sense. Yes, it is corny but so is Change You Can Believe In, and Straight Talk Express. Bye.